The Still Centre of the Storm

We have reached the fallow fields that always mark out any election in the United States. In the long lost days before Primaries governed the outcome of the National conventions these summer months were when candidates from both parties squared off the masters of the state’s delegations with this promise and that plum. Over a cigar and a mint julep or a cigarette and a very dry Martini nominations were settled. There are still echoes of this past in some of the southern states but in truth the days of machine politicians in their pomp are over and done – though perhaps someone should have told Governor Rod Blagojevich, who is 2008 tried to dispose of the former senator Obama’s senate seat by use of old patronage in the old way and ended in jail for his trouble.

Today the two principle nominees have been in place for two months. They now relentlessly raise money. Romney has done spectacularly well in that department since the start of June. He raised $138m last month alone. The Supreme Court ruling in favour of the President’s healthcare reforms may well have added spice to the cocktail of fundraising or icing to the cake of party donations. Wall Street millionaires line up to give Romney a helping hand. The President also has his own helpers especially from Hollywood.

Romney is financially very well placed – but of itself this is neither a surprise nor necessarily defining. President Obama will not be short of cash and his advertising campaign and his SuperPACs will be as unrelentingly negative as his opponent’s whilst the candidates will wrap themselves in the American flag and high principles and let others do their dirty work. Thus it has always been. The Supreme Court decision is very important – for it means that Justice Roberts has become a target of the Tea Party and as well as aiming for control of Congress this time the republican right are determined to have control entirely of the Supreme Court. And it must not be forgotten that if Republicans hold on in the gubernatorial elections which will also take place in November they will hold more Governors mansions than any party since the New Deal. And the one thing the right wing of the GOP possesses is a long memory-  and none hold grudges longer or bears them with less grace.

Therein lies their electoral problem.

The drift in the Electoral College towards a Democrat majority runs counter-cyclically and the advantage that has accrued to the GOP over the Obama incumbency may delude the Republicans into thinking this election is within easy grasp. The polls – those that aren’t unreliably partisan at least – whilst showing a close race also tend to show the President with an advantage in Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio & Pennsylvania and smaller leads in Florida, Virginia and today also in North Carolina – where the Democratic convention will be held in early September in the shadow of the Labor Day Holiday that marks the commencement of the campaign proper.

Thus the only pickups so far the Republicans might rely upon over 2008 are Indiana and Iowa. While it’s true that in the more marginal states many polls are within 3% one way or other and may easily be counted either in the Romney or Obama columns the practical likelihood is that Romney will not pick up all of them. Whatever the precise case the GOP still have the math of the college against them.

As the polls swing around it always seem to come up with a result that puts Obama above 290 votes – clear of the 270 he needs to win.

There are other straws in the wind too – though Obama’s personal numbers are weak – reflecting the weak economy –  many voters do not see this as a vital election – the independents are particularly cool and still break in the President’s favour. It now isn’t clear that things will get much worse whilst of course if they get better then the president is most likely to benefit.

There are still the conventions; still the debates; still the dangers of an October surprise; still the possibility that like in 1980 there will be a sudden haemorrhage in the president’s support but on balance all the cards he has held thus far he still holds – even if not always very convincingly…and it is in the convincingly department that Romney is also at his greatest disadvantage. To add to that disadvantage the Obama campaign relentlessly revisits Romney’s role in Bain Capital. Romney has called Obama a liar. Bain Capital made its money and made Romney a muti-millionaire by buying up American companies and out-sourcing their jobs to the India.

Whatever to exact truth…this narrative isn’t helping Romney’s image. Business after all is meant to be his strength but then in 2004 Democrat Senator’s Kerry’s military record was meant to be his strength until the ‘swiftboat advertiement’ turned it into a problem. His campaign never recovered and it is hard not to suppose that Obama’s strategists have road tested this Bain attack add and found it undermines Romney. This will be a very dirty campaign. It appears that the lessons taught by Karl Rove have been learned after all. And as if to toughen up his image yet more Secretary Clinton and the President are being seen to stand up to President Putin over Syria.

Meanwhile the final primaries for the other races are playing out. The Democrats look certain now to do just a bit better in the senate than appeared likely in January. Some races – as in Massachusetts that might have expected to be in their favour are very close – but others have broken unexpectedly for them. It looks marginally more likely that the Democrats might just hold on and may be able to use the Vice President’s casting vote if they can get to 50 senators to caucus with them.

In the House it is now almost impossible to envisage any scenario where the republicans lose their majority. The Democrats will do well to end up with 200 seats. All this means it is likely come November that this election of itself will not unlock the legislative gridlock that has hemmed in the administration/. and with the fashion for cutting public expenditure in the ascendant it could be that come 2014-5 that the American economy will slip into a second recession – and that of course has dreadful implications for the conservative led coalition over here in the UK. it will also have some impact upon the elections in Germany in the autumn of 2014.

There will be some impact on the choice of vice presidential candidate for the Republicans and here the smart money is on the telegenic senator Marco Rubio – though romney seems most likely to make a safe choice of someone perhpas knowledgable of foreign policy where his CV is a little thin. But as with popes so with Vice Presidents the papabile never seem to be chosen.

When the new Electoral College shares were finalised this spring there was a lot of easy talk about a hung election going to the House of Representatives. But on the basis of current polls that seems to be the most unlikely of all outcomes this year. But predictions in politics are always risky but Obama enters the final phase still with the slight advantage of incumbency over his opponent and with the greater advantage of his vote consolidating in the states he needs most to win.