Electoral College Obama 293 Romney 241
Senate Democrats 47 Republicans 47 (toss ups 3)
We have reached the fallow fields that always mark out any election in the United States. In the long lost days before Primaries governed the outcome of the National conventions these summer months were when candidates from both parties squared off the masters of the state’s delegations with this promise and that plum. Over a cigar and a mint julep or a cigarette and a very dry Martini nominations were settled. There are still echoes of this past…. continues here The Still Centre of the election\’s storm continues here
Recent publicity about the volume of cash Romney campaign has raised overlooks the fact that the GOP have spent heavily on the primaries whereas the Obama campaign has hardly touched the millions of dollars it has raised since last November. This advantage lies unexploited by a President who by all previous records should be embroiled in one of the closest elections ever. Indeed some statistics reliably point towards Obama being ejected from the White house.
The danger remains for the president that like Jimmy Carter before him that there will be a late break whose tide will over-sweep him and the Democrats.
If the past is predictive of the future this outcome should be likely. However only the naive believe history is clairvoyant. Its lessons are more opaque. Political commentators and those soothsayers of modern politics – the pollsters – tend to overstate history’s predictive powers as often as they misrepresent its complex lessons with undemanding truisms. As Oscar Wilde wisely observed of the truth: it’s rarely pure and never simple.