Obama & Biden: the imperfect; or, the past historic?

Sages say Conventions are not what they were and who am I to argue with the wisdom of the ages?

This gathering of Democrats certainly wasn’t the dewy-eyed event of 2008. That said the Democrats left Charlotte is better spirits after having what was universally agreed to have been the better of the two conventions.

Michelle Obama ‘s emergence into the political foreground was completed with probably the best speech given at either of the conventions. Smiles from the heart melt hearts in the audience rather than the grandiloquence of melodramatic emotion. This isn’t the age of Churchill or even Lincoln and this isn’t the forum for sermonising – though that seldom restrains modern politicians or modern preachers. In this world the techniques that work best are suited to the small lens of the camera rather than the grand stage on which they’re still set. This is performance for the TV or movie camera rather than open air theatre. In this forum the intimate and restrained works better than the flashy and contrived –  the power of small gestures governs the audience interaction in this medium.

Michelle Obama’s speech therefore worked brilliantly and the is very much a mistress of the small scale sincere. but what made the speech gripping was the a-political nature of its very political content. That is clever stuff and it worked well. The other star turn was Bill Clinton. For a political junky like me the old crooner strut his stuff was a bit like watching the legendary Sinatra in his Las Vegas sunset years – polished, beautifully modulated and carefully contrived. Clinton is the master of folksy bonhomie replete with one-liners delivered with the precision of a stiletto. By the time he was finished there wasn’t a Republican canard that hadn’t been shot, plucked and served with orange sauce.

That brings us to the President’s speech. It was vintage Obama – full of soaring rhetoric more preacher than teacher. But unlike Clinton he just doesn’t skewer his opponent with a memorable put down. And many of the themes were over-familiar to any who’ve heard his stump speech over this election year. Consequently the Media buzz after the convention was one of disappointment. The commentariat may have been unmoved but maybe it moved his audience. For what seems tired to those who follow these things may not before have been heard in extenso by many of the wider audience. Thirty-five million listened to the President at the Democrat’s convention and judging by the mild bounce in the polls they liked what they heard.

These two conventions were directed to the faithful rather than the nation as a whole. perhaps nothing better illustrates that pitch than the fact that Sandra Fluke– the young woman who made headlines in the primary season when she fell foul of Rush Limbaugh\’s fouler tongue. Her very presence was meant to be a reproach to the republican party – and it was – but nevertheless it also speaks to the divisions at the heart of this America.

Both parties and each candidate regards a narrow – partisan – victory as the best victory that can be achieved. These days landslides in the popular vote are a thing of a past. Regan\’s victory over Mondale in 1984 was the last truly decisive victory in a presidential election. Obama’s margin wasn’t much different from that of Clinton in 1996 or indeed George Herbert Bush in 1988.

Though Obama is always carefully to couch his phrases in an inclusive tone the content is replete with dog-whistle allusions perfectly pitched to attract the attention of his diverse constituencies. At present the President’s strategy aims at the margins – in a similar way to G.W. Bush in 2004.

This may bring victory but it’s hard to see it bringing an end to what appear to be increasingly irreconcilable divisions. In that way these times feel more like the 1850s than 1950s; more like the 1910s and the heyday of the progressive party insurgency than a resounding endorsement of the two party duopoly that has governed the US since the 1920s.

Although the weather once again interrupted play it was clear during the course of this Democrat’s week that the Republican message still hasn’t really got through. And whilst Romney’s message doesn’t catch light the Obama campaign can hope at least for a decisive victory in the Electoral College even if it’s by a narrow margin in the popular vote.

Conventional wisdom says if Romney has a lead of 2% or thereabouts Obama’s advantage may be worth nothing. Moreover the polling points towards a race where Republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats and that will definitely settle matters one way or another in states such as Ohio and Florida.

Significantly it is to Florida that the President turned after the convention with his message to seniors on Medicare. Ryan’s threat to replace Medicare with vouchers meets with a chill in the Sunshine State. Romney must win in Florida to take the presidency and Obama campaign calculates correctly that a victory here will deny the Republicans the White House. In addition to his message on Medicare Obama  also has the support of the popular former Republican Governor Charlie Cist. Governor Cist is supporting Obama and looks likely to be the next Democratic nominee for the Governor’s mansion – so the two have good reason to  see the president does well in the Sunshine State this time round

Romney will be on Meet the Press this weekend. The candidate will be forced once more to play a different tune to the one played by the Republicans in convention. This gnaws away at the Romney candidacy and undermines the strategy. Here the Romney camapign has also pulled advertisements in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. This may be no more than a taking-stock. but it’s another straw in the wind that the Big Mo isn’t lifting the Romney bandwagon. It also sets the tone for the TV debates which many experts now believe may really decide matters this time around.

Conventionally incumbents get less bounce from their conventions than challengers from theirs.  But Obama has already got more life from his than the republicans from theirs. If that bounce melts away in the disappointing employment figures and the rests of the uncertain economic news then it’s still an open race – but if Obama makes the deal – the one ironically best articulated by Bill Clinton – that he needs another 4 years to finish the job – it may be that historians will look back on Charlotte and say that was where the election was won and lost.

I’ve steered wide of predictions – commentary is the art of interpreting the past rather than predicting the future – but as I write these lines I note that Andy Murray has made it to his fifth Grand slam final. The record suggests this will be Murray’s first grand slam. But records are made to be broken and that may be that Murray’s destiny. I cannot tell you who will win – but I can tell you what the past suggests. And the evidence suggests that Governor Romney is not in the place he ought to be at this stage of the campaign.

The Republicans look back to 1980 and the race between incumbent President Jimmy Carter and candidate Ronald Regan which only finally decisively broke in Regan’s favour in the last days of the campaign after Regan out-performed all expectations in the TV debates. But Regan was a professional movie actor and cameras and TV were his metier.

It was Lloyd Bentsen in the Vice Presidential TV debate in 1988 who crushed Dan Quayle with the memorable line – “Senator I served with Jack Kennedy; I knew Jack Kennedy; Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine; Senator you’re no Jack Kennedy.”

And I say – whatever Governor Romney is – he’s no Ronald Regan.