Mid Term Blues for Democrats as GOP turns US Red or does it?
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U.S.A. FlagMid-Term for Blues

Mid Term elections may mean a great deal. Generally in a two party system they have been taken to indicate the turning of a tide from one party towards the other. This was most certainly the case in 2006 and again in 1966 1982 and 1986. It was most certainly not the case in 1974 for, although Gerald Ford famously lost the subsequent presidential election to Jimmy Carter, the loss was by a squeak that was almost as tight as Kennedy’s victory in 1960. The 1976 Presidential election was the closest election in terms of the Electoral College of any post New Deal election until George W. Bush won infamously in 2000 by gaining fewer votes but more Electoral Votes than his opponent, Vice President Gore. Indeed 2000 was an extraordinary election since it also demonstrated the importance of controlling the Supreme Court to whom the president nominates and the congress confirms. The Supreme Court unlike even the Papacy these days is the place where the old may linger on until they pass into history.

Thus it was that the New Deal lingered on into the 1960’s largely because of Democrats controlling both the Presidency and the Congress for almost a generation after 1932. That hegemony was broken by Nixon-Reagan in the 1970’s and the1980’s. Through those decades that new right wing ideological grip of the GOP was reinforced by the collapse and slower even more lingering death of the Southern Democratic Party which had prospered in the old Confederacy after the end of Reconstruction in the aftermath of the Civil War.

Then came Bill Clinton – perhaps the Grover Cleveland of his age – a lone blue Democrat boat afloat in a sea of red Republicanism. Bill gave birth to the New Democrats who famously triangulated between what they characterised as the New Right and the Old (New Deal) Left. It was an old sales trick – well worthy of the political magician that is Bill Clinton. It worked. Since the ‘New Freedom’ under Wilson, American voters have been in love ‘New’ as the adjective of active political choice. New Labour borrowed from Clinton – under the tactical genius that was Gordon Brown but which only turned out to enthrone an upstart pretender, Tony Blair – much to the chagrin of ‘the Gordon’.

The Second Bush presidency eked out its victories on the margins of the Blue state/Red state divide which had emerged originally in the failed presidential run of Michael Dukakis against Bush senior (George Herbert). Dukakis’ losing campaign was the first sign that parts of New England and the Western states were ceasing to vote Republican. In addition to his home state of Massachusetts Dukakis also carried Rhode Island, West Virginia, New York, Washington and Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Though much else was a red sea for oil rich Bush the elder, the Republican margins in what are now Blue states were already starting to narrow significantly. The demographic that had favoured Republicans since the 1950’s and, which, were cemented in 1968 with the collapse of the Democrat South, had begun another tectonic shift. Then came Obama – and he demonstrated how far that demographic shift had moved the arithmetic of the presidency towards the Democrats. At the same time the ever redder Red states faced a sea of ever bluer Blue states. In between them the number of so called swing states has steadily declined. Obama is the first majority Democrat since LBJ and the first since FDR to be a majority president in two consecutive elections.

U.S.A. FlagIn all this where does this year’s Midterm elections take us – the answer is not very far. The Democrats have lost a large number of senate seats – probably eight in all. However, many of the seats they lost were in states where they prospered in the quasi-landslide of 2008. They were defending 21 seats compared to the Republicans 11. Next time round in 2016 the Republicans will be defending 24 seats compared to 9 Democrats. Although this margin numerically still seemingly strongly favours the Republicans holding on to the Senate in 2016, many of the 24 seats the GOP are defending are in very Blue states – whereas many of the senate seats the Democrats just lost were in very Red states.

Again much has been made of the House of Representatives having more GOP members than any since 1928. Again all that glisters is not gold for the GOP – it is true that in the South the Democrats have virtually been wiped out and Arkansas which gave us the clintons is now again part of the old Confederacy but, though there were some Republican gains in Illinois and New York, the GOP swell has not really wiped out the Democratic margin in the Blue states – this is because the turnout was lower in the Blue states and higher in the Red states. In short angry Republican inclined voters came out to vote but indifferent Democrats stayed home. What is more is the turnout figure itself – at around 33% –  is by some margin the lowest of the modern political era. For most Midterm elections turnouts have hovered around 40% for the entire period since 1982. This sudden drop has also been sharpest amongst the demographic of young, more educated voters – the under thirties – the so-called Obama voters.

The Republicans therefore also did well in Gubernatorial races and here they have made a number of important gains which will doubtless help any General Election campaign in 2016. But, that said, it is the 2016 and the 2018 elections that will really matter as they will impact on re-districting which happens every ten years and which is why the Republicans currently have so many more members in the House of Representatives – through effective gerrymandering of constituency boundaries.

U.S.A. FlagIt is very significant than in California where boundaries are drawn up by an independent electoral commission the margin between the parties better reflects the number of votes cast for a party. It should be remembered that the Democrats won more votes in the House in 2012 though they won significantly fewer seats than the GOP. That has not been a situation that has long endured in the historical past. Eventually, the old demographic dog has always caught-up with the wayward political puppy. The GOP would be foolish to believe this election promises them the White House. They made that mistake in 2012.

In terms of electoral politics this particular election has favoured two important presidential hopefuls – Governor Christie of New Jersey was mastermind of this GOP victory. It has put him back into contention for the Republican nomination. Secondly, this result makes it much more likely that Hillary Clinton will take the plunge next time around. In 2008 – a time so lost in mists and mellow fruitlessness it seems another vintage entirely – Mrs Clinton racked up her primary victories in the blue-collar districts of the Blue states and the Red states. If the Democrats can hope to be competitive in those congressional districts in 2016 they will need a candidate who will speak to this voting group.

President Obama has been a better president than his critics have allowed but strangely for a man who communicated in such high-flown rhetoric in 2008 his has been a very inarticulate presidency. The best political speech of his period as president was delivered not by him but by dear old Bill Clinton at the nominating convention of 2012. And there Mrs Clinton has it – two former presidents who speak truth unto their respective core supporters and who both will be speaking up for her – Governor Christie will need to keep his famously short temper on a tight leash if he is to out-class Mrs Clinton.

This is a very personal drubbing for the President but Obama may craft the last laugh when the time comes in 2016…..

 

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