A few thoughts before Rochester & Strood has its last word

8th November is a little late to awaken to news of an assassination attempt against HM the Queen. Terrorists it seems are always plotting and history since the time of Julius Ceasar is replete with assassinations. The treason of Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators to blow up the House of Lords at the state opening by James I is one of those moments when a thwarted plan makes history in its own way and has a long legacy. One of the by products of the many peculiarities of the English Reformation was that Roman Catholicism was made into an act of treason. It was never possible to make the old religion heresy per se since only the Latin Church and Orthodox churches had laid claim to that right. Moreover, there could be no question than any of the ‘sacraments’ valid in the Catholic Church could de facto have been anything but valid in the Reformed churches. Therefore, in the strict sense the religion of the Reformation and the Reformers had gradually morphed into the religion of the local prince. One of the oddest by-products of Luther’s attack on the universality of the church – found in the western rite in the papacy –  was in effect making of every petty price into a ‘Constantine’. By the time the Reformation gets into its second generation this gradually but inevitably led to the equating the interests of a princely polity with the religion of his or her subjects. The idea itself was not entirely new – after all the Inquisition in Spain rested on the very same principle – but it was not unironic that a notion inimical to the Humanist religious ideal focused on a Christo-centric princeship of Christ should have substituted His secular ordinary for His spiritual one.

This week the plotting of 5th November took place in that famous sea of discontent – the Parliamentary Labour Party and the victim was Ed Miliband. It is hard to feel sorry for Ed for few men or women are as single minded in fulfilling their personal political ambitions as he has shown himself to be. All politicians must pay the price for ambition or its lack – perhaps David Miliband in the last government should have seized his moment and maybe the last Labour government was cursed by Brown’s lack of ruthless ambition in 1994. The Conservative Party never quite got over either the means of displacement of Heath nor, the subsequent defenestration of Thatcher. Clegg was born on the fickle tide that first drown Charles Kennedy in the demon drink and then beached Menzies Campbell on the idle strand.  But of all the main parties Labour alone has lacked the killer instinct when it comes to its leaders. This British Labour Party unlike its Australian cousin is not much disposed to assassination. Labour’s wobble this week will probably not lead to a Bob Hawke moment – the reason being twofold – it hasn’t the stomach for it and there’s no Bob Hawke waiting to seize the crown. Ambition might easily prefer Alan Johnson or even Yvette Cooper or Andy Burnham but they prefer to sit and wait.

It is therefore unlikely that there will be any attempt to displace Miliband before next May. Labour therefore is stuck with its most unpopular leader ever. It is not a good position from which to fight an election. But then few elections have ever been fought by three party leaders to whom the public have been equally badly disposed for various reasons. Mr Clegg has never recovered from tuition fees and anything the LibDems now promise will be tainted by that betrayal. Cameron and Osborne are both perceived to be untrustworthy – the chancellor only this morning displaying his ability to seize defeat from victory’s brow by claiming too much for himself. The EU and the attitude of the two  warring factions of the Conservative Party undermines Cameron at every turn and makes him look weak, vacillating and parti pris. The tone of all of this makes the Conservatives a hard sell and this enquiry underway into the conduct of politicians in the 1970’s and 1980’s and 1990’s which has already caused Mrs May such trouble has the potential to explode all over the General Election in a very unpredictable manner. The great British public is bound to ask the question no one has yet answered – how come all those whispers behind closed doors went unheard by the very class – our political elite – who was doing all the whispering sub rosa. Sir Cyril Smith was a cut a large figure but the eddy of distasteful gossip surrounding his great bulk can hardly have been unheard by his and other parties’ leaderships. This is true of all the political parties and all the cast of slimy sexual predators for whom they covered-up.

UKIP and the SNP have both thrived in this primordial soup of discontent. From the current mess of potage it is far from clear that whoever wins next May will enjoy even as much political authority – let alone as much good will – as the current coalition after 2010. The main parties as political coalitions cling together like warm toffee in the summer sun – but if a blast of arctic electoral wind chills them to their core vote their brittle mass may simply splinter apart.

For both the governing parties there is little to do but wait and hope but Labour if it owns ambition to be the party of government may first have to find the courage to be a party of regicide. History teaches us the Labour Party has seldom owned such political ruthlessness about its leaders but like the times who knows who may rise to a once in a lifetime occasion?

Thus, it falls to UKIP, the SNP and the Greens to do for them all what they are unable to do for themselves. In Scotland Jim Murphy may be able to staunch the flow of votes from Labour and give the party a chance in the English constituencies. Mr Miliband may hit the streets and the door and  seek to meet the people who can swing things Labour’s way. It remains my instinct that Miliband’s ambition will leave no stone unturned but it is whether his advisers have the stomach to advise him to do what it takes that is unclear. The LibDems will do better locally where they have organisation and maybe can appeal to Labour voters to give them a second chance to do the right thing in choosing a coalition partner after next May. As for the Conservatives – UKIP hounds and the anti-EU Tory Hunt are at the heels of the devious fox of the party leadership. Were they to win it is hard to see them coming out of a referendum as a single party. The naysayers to the EU say no on principle and if the electorate says yes they will continue to agitate for Britain to leave. Where can they go but into UKIP?

Next week Rochester & Strood will tell us all about the parties: is the UKIP bubble yet to burst; if Labour polls below 10% is there to be a challenge to Miliband; will the Conservative Party panic so there may be more defections; and if the LibDems are truly obliterated then is even Mr Clegg fit to survive? All these questions have no obvious answers. If Labour polls next May as poorly as it did in 2010 its political viability may be coming toward its historic end – the unions may see their political interest fulfilled elsewhere. If the Conservative Party gets fewer votes than 2010 it may too no longer be able to contain its right wing faction and it may split apart as it did over the Corn Laws. Seldom has so much rested upon a by election and seldom the votes of so few promised to mean so much for the political establishment.